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Running a school

Why students leave a language school

A school usually finds out that a student has gone when a payment does not arrive. The decision is weeks older than that, and it was made on evidence the timetable had already recorded.

Nobody leaves in the month they stop paying

A student who cancels in November decided in October and started deciding in September. What arrives at the end is the paperwork: the message that the schedule no longer works, the invoice left unpaid, the seat that stays empty. By then there is nothing left to save.

This is why retention gets treated as luck. A school that sees only the last step sees an event with no cause, and an event with no cause cannot be worked on. The causes were visible for weeks - they were simply never anybody's job to look at.

Four reasons, and only one of them is the teaching

Students leave for a small number of reasons, and schools reliably guess the wrong one. In the order they actually decide it:

What leaving looks like before it is announced

None of this is invisible. Every reason above leaves a mark in the record a school already keeps, usually weeks before any notice:

A school watching those signals has three to six weeks of warning. A school watching the bank account has none, because a bank account reports a decision instead of a doubt.

The weeks that decide it

Two moments carry most of the risk, and neither is the one a school worries about.

The first month. Attendance is not a habit yet and every lesson is still being judged. A student who misses one of their first four lessons is far likelier to leave than one who misses one of their next twenty - the same absence, at a different point, means something else entirely.

The plateau. Somewhere in the middle, progress stops feeling like progress: the distance between one level and the next is longer than the distance between the two before it, and the student reads the flat stretch as having stopped learning. Nothing has gone wrong with the teaching. What is missing is evidence.

What a longer stay is worth

Take the same group as the first piece in this series: six seats at €12, one ninety-minute lesson a week, a teacher at €22 an hour, €60 to win each student. Change nothing except how long people stay.

Average stay Lessons attended Acquisition per lesson What the hour leaves
4 months 16 −€22.50 −€2.50
8 months 32 −€11.25 €8.75
12 months 48 −€7.50 €12.50
18 months 72 −€5.00 €15.00

The same teacher, the same price and the same room. Only the average stay changes. At four months the group does not break even; at eighteen it earns nearly twice what it earns at eight.

Per student it is the same story: sixteen lessons at €12 is €192 of lifetime revenue, forty-eight is €576. Three times the income from the same person, for the same €60 it cost to find them.

What to change first

Where the signals live

Every one of those signals is already in the record: who handed in and when, who is missing which slot, which invoice went out late, which student has not asked anything in a month. They are invisible only while they are spread over a spreadsheet, a calendar and a chat thread. That is what EdTechCore puts in one place - the lesson on a shared board, homework and grading on one path, and the school's books behind them - so the first thing a school learns about a student leaving is not the payment that did not arrive.

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